Michael Malone's Challenge is Only Beginning
Russ's play has given the rotation a prototype but the real work remains
Aaron Gordon is back!
That is great news for Denver, but with it arrives some quandaries for Michael Malone as he starts to narrow in on Denver’s rotations and lineup moving forward. This is now go-time for Malone; the hard questions are going to have to be answered, particularly how to deploy and combine Denver’s 3 young wing players.
Russell Westbrook has played so well that he deserves ~30 minutes per game. And the Nuggets needs those minutes. He will likely remain in the starting lineup for this next chapter of games. We will see how that shakes out. It could be a phase, or it could be more permanent. The good thing is Russ has pushed this situation with his excellent play, not because the Nuggets are at a point of desperation. There are a number of other factors and moving pieces that will make the coming weeks very interesting as we see what Malone is thinking, regardless of whether AG comes off the bench for a while or returns to the starting lineup.
The anticipated starting lineup of Murray, Westbrook, MPJ, Gordon, and Jokic has actually only played 96 possessions together this year (+25.5), so getting to see an extended run would be interesting. If this lineup is successful, it sets the stage for a lot of lineup challenges and opportunities as a result.
Rotation Information Learned so Far
Here are the 3 biggest things we have learned over the first 38 games of the season from a rotation perspective:
Murray and Westbrook work, and they give the basic foundation of the rotation. They present a flexibility that is more robust than most expected. They work:
✅Together, with Jokic (+10.6 in 606 poss)
✅Just Jamal with Jokic (+9.6 in 968 poss)
✅Just Russ with Jokic (+15.9 in 827 poss)
✅Just Jamal without Jokic (-2.0 in 377 poss; yes I will take that)
✅Together, without Jokic (-3.8 in 414 poss; yes I will take that)
❌Just Russ without Jokic (-40.0 in 340 poss)
So you can play them in any configuration except for Russ alone without Jokic. This gives Denver a nice way to map out a rotation where they can play together and separately, somewhere around 18-22 minutes together and some combo of 24-30 minutes with only one on the floor. The basic structure should be Murray staggering with the non-Jokic minutes for now.
Jokic (credit to Russ and others as well) continues to make lineups work that look troublesome on paper offensively.
Despite Denver playing a lot of limited shooters, when Jokic is on the floor the team scores 127.1 points per 100 possessions. It's not just the total, though. His 7 most played lineups this year are ALL over 122 pts/100. And every lineup he has played with at least 40 possessions (15 lineups) are all above league average offensively, with 12 of them over 120 pts/100. Playing combinations of a lot of “non-spacers” (Russ, Braun, AG, Watson) has not limited the Denver offense, which is scoring even more this season than last when Jokic is on the floor (including in half court offense, so the increased transition play is not just the reason why).
So we have learned you can play Russ in a lot more lineups than originally assumed (when playing with Jokic).
Russ and Jokic has been great, but they might need MPJ with them
Russ and Jokic with key players ON/OFF:
This is somewhat bad news, as MPJ is the key to both rotation foundations, Russ with the starters and Jamal when Jokic sits…
Decisions that have to be made:
These 3 big takeaways above set the stage for rotation decisions moving forward. Here are the big questions that Malone will have to zero in on now:
Who is the bench player coming in for Murray?
Murray coming out first with both him and Russ starting seems pretty straightforward right now. Murray needs to come out to rest and stagger for the non-Jokic minutes.
If you sub Braun in for Murray, you have a limited 3pt shooting guard paired with Russ. This lineup has worked though. Over 210 possessions this lineup is a +30.5 with excellent defense (102.4). This is the exact type of lineup that looks like trouble on paper that Jokic (and others of course) magically makes work. Is it sustainable though?
Braun seems like the first option off the bench, but what else is there? Strawther and Watson are candidates. Could Strawther come in first (replacing Murray) to keep more shooting around Russ? The big thing this would accomplish in my mind is tying more of Strawther’s minutes to Jokic and getting to sort of “hide” him in a portion of his minutes with all starters for the rest of this regular season. Strawther is a +12.5 alongside Jokic but a -20.3 without him.
Russ/Strawther/MPJ/AG/Jokic is NOT a lineup Denver has used yet this year so it would be new.
Watson could also come in for Murray. This would be a sea change for how Malone plays Watson though. This is covered in more depth below.
Unless we see a bit change, Braun and Strawther coming in at some point during the 1st quarter for Murray and MPJ seem to be the likely first two subs based on Malone’s patterns so far. That would mean a Russ, Braun, Strawther, AG, Jokic lineup for a few minutes. That group is also not one that has played together (26 possessions) this year.
Does Malone mix up the Watson only-for-AG substitution?
As I have mentioned before, Malone has really only played Watson as the backup 4 when AG is healthy. If he continues to do that, we would likely end up with a 1st quarter lineup of Russ, Braun, Strawther, Watson, Jokic (promising through 80 poss this year at a +15.3) and/or Russ, Braun, MPJ, Watson, Jokic (+9.3 over 189 poss) for a bit.
If Malone wants Watson to play for more than 18 minutes he is going to have to change this stance, playing him WITH Aaron Gordon, something he has avoided (he did actually do this last game but we have to wait and see if it was because of AG coming off the bench or a bit of a preview).
We have no information on what AG/PWat lineups are like (outside of AG as backup 5), but they would complicate this puzzle of how to use Braun and Strawther off the bench. If Braun, Strawther, and Watson are all playing at the 2 or 3 in some way, those rotations really get upset compared to their relative simplicity (not necessarily effectiveness) thus far. So far it has simply been: at least one PG and some combo of 2 of Braun, Strawther, and MPJ or both PGs and one of them. Adding Watson to that mix complicates it. So again, we could be seeing lineups we havent before.
If you decide to play Peyton with AG some (or a lot), what lineups are you going to do it in? Can you do it with Westbrook on the floor? Can you do it with MPJ off the floor?
Is Westbrook, Watson, MPJ, AG, Jokic tenable? I do not know (the same lineup with CB for PWat works). If you want to go to this lineup then Watson sort of needs to be the first one to come into the game. I'm not sure how else you can get to it given other stagger demands.
Is Russ, Braun, Watson, AG, Jokic tenable? I don't know. Would I like to see it? Absolutely. I think the defense would be excellent and we would get to test the limits of Jokic performing miracles with athleticism but limited shooting. As I have said before, this would just be for a few minutes a half- we are not closing game 7 with this group.
Watson/AG/Jokic lineups look a lot better with Murray, but they will be hard to get to if Murray needs to stagger with the bench. I think all of these are interesting to me:
Jamal, Watson, MPJ, AG, Jokic
Jamal, Braun, Watson, AG, Jokic
Jamal, Strawther, Watson, AG, Jokic
The point is that Watson’s defense is badly needed, but the return of AG and the promotion of Russ into the starting lineup make getting him in more than just AG’s rest minutes some uncharted waters for Michael Malone. But I do think he has to open that can of worms and experiment with it now. Otherwise, come playoff time Watson will be relegated to the 8-10 minutes Aaron Gordon sits (or even less with the good option of MPJ sliding to the 4 we saw last year).
When to play Michael Porter Jr. and what to do when he is off of the floor?
MPJ is the key to the Russ+Jokic with Murray OFF minutes (+20.3 with MPJ, -6.0 without MPJ)…
…And MPJ is the key to Jamal ON, Jokic OFF minutes (+3.2 with MPJ, -11.3 without MPJ).
The Nuggets need to pick their poison here, and then focus on trying to optimize the one they sacrifice.
Scenario 1: Keep MPJ in for the Russ alone with Jokic minutes. This means MPJ minutes mostly overlap Russ and Jamal doesn't get him for non-Jokic minutes. So who works best with Russ, MPJ, Jokic?
The good news is that with Russ, MPJ, and Jokic… ANYTHING works right now. That is great, as it allows us to consider who should be saved for other minutes instead of worrying about these ones (again, maybe “hiding” Strawther here makes sense).
In this scenario we need to build our best Jamal stagger with both Jokic and MPJ off the floor. Murray has only played 336 possessions with both Jokic and MPJ off so the team would need to get to tinkering with this. In the small returns though the #s look like this:
There are no easy answers here but I would approach this by playing AG during this time. I would do it with a center though, instead of AG playing backup 5. I would start with Jamal and AG, and tinker with Saric/DeAndre as well as what combo of Braun/Watson/Strawther can function best.
Scenario 2: Save MPJ for the non-Jokic minutes and find the best solve for weathering Russ+Jokic without MPJ minutes. Russ+Jokic with MJP OFF has only played 357 possessions, so again, returns are small but here are the numbers:
I think the direction I would go with this is to go towards a good defensive lineup and see if it can become respectable offensively and/or just feast with transition and turnovers. Russ, Braun, Watson, Jokic and tinker with whether you can survive with Strawther or you want to have AG. The Russ/Braun/Strawther/Watson/Jokic has played 80 possessions together and is a +15.3 due to the defense (103.4).
Who pairs best with Jamal during the non-Jokic minutes if Malone doesnt want to play AG?
Giving Jamal and MPJ Christian Braun has been helpful when Jokic is off, a +7.7 over 247 possessions. One possible benefit of Braun coming off the bench could be his playing the non-Jokic minutes more consistently. So the main options would be:
Murray, Braun, MPJ, Watson, backup 5 (+20.4 over 134 poss)
Murray, Braun, Strawther, MPJ, backup 5 (only 28 possessions). This would limit Watson’s minutes even further though.
You can also go without Braun which would be Murray, Strawther, MPJ, Watson, backup 5 (+0.4 over 110 poss).
Now that Denver has its rotation players healthy (with apologies to Vlatko Cancar), figuring out what the best non-Jokic unit is should be priority number 2 (1 being the overall team defense). If this is not improved some, Denver will suffer both in playoff seeding and in overloading Jokic (still over 37 minutes per game). Given that importance, I would use the best unit for the non-Jokic minutes as my rotation starting point and reverse engineer the rest from there.
With Russ starting do you need a 3rd point guard?
Russ starting increases the amount of time that both Russ and Jamal are on the floor together. Given the minutes they also have to stagger, this could push their total minutes up. It is hard to keep Jamal from going over 35 minutes per game, and it is hard to keep Russ from playing less than 10 consecutive minutes to start each half. This is before considering the temptation to add Russ to the non-Jokic minutes some nights. Will Malone play Jalen Pickett some? And if so, where would he try to do it, and would he do it with both Murray and Westbrook off the floor? Or would Malone consider a few minutes each half going without a point guard? This would be during Jokic’s minutes and could be another way to relieve some of the stress of distributing the 3 young wing player’s minutes.
Malone’s time to shine
Michael Malone has a huge challenge ahead of him. Finding the best way to deploy the 3 young wing players (Braun, Watson, Strawther), deciding where to invest the MPJ minutes, getting some stability in the non-Jokic minutes, and deciding who to start and close games are all massive choices over the 2nd half of the season. This is a huge opportunity to push all the right buttons and get the most out of this roster this year.